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Philly's Harker Looks For "Boring" Taper

FED

The title of Philadelphia Fed Pres Harker's speech today is "Economic Outlook: Cautious Optimism", which nicely sums up his outlook.

  • His current rate view: "I wouldn't expect any hikes to interest rates until late next year or early 2023" is the same as his comment pre-Sept FOMC. And at that point he said his rate forecast hadn't changed since either the March or June dot plots. So pretty consistent and looks unlikely to change unless something dramatic happens.
  • On tapering: time "soon" to "slowly ... methodically... boringly" pare back asset purchases.
  • Overall, Harker's somewhere in the middle of the FOMC hawk-dove spectrum, probably leaning slightly hawkish, but doesn't appear to want tapering or rate liftoff to happen too quickly.
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