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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CNH
CNH/PHP rejected the 38.2% retracement of its 2018 - 2020 sell-off at the start to 2021 and has eased off since, although it remains within and ascending channel drawn off Sep 10, 2020 low. The medium-term technical outlook remains bullish, with the 50-DMA providing firm support & operating above the 100-DMA & 200-DMA, in that order.
- Over the short-term, the RSI slipped under the 70 mark after CNH/PHP topped out at PHP7.4908 on Jan 5, preluding subsequent sales. The slide appears to have lost steam and the battle for dominance between bulls and bears is ongoing.
- The low print of Jan 18 at PHP7.3856 has held firm, with the rate failing to attack the level during its latest drop on Jan 22. Conversely, CNH/PHP struggled to push through the 61.8% recovery of the Jan 5 - 18 slide at PHP7.4506 as it climbed onto the peak of Jan 21 at PHP7.4465.
- The bullish Harami candlestick pattern charted at the beginning of this week sparked CNH/PHP purchases over the recent days. A clean break above the aforementioned PHP7.4465/7.4506 levels is needed to revive bullish momentum and shift focus to Jan 5 high/38.2% retracement of the 2018-2020 move at PHP7.4908/7.4925. Conversely, a slide through Jan 18 low/50-DMA at PHP7.3856/7.3838 would tilt the near-term outlook to the bearish side, opening up the PHP7.3500 area.
- BBG suggested that CNH/PHP might appreciate towards PHP8.00 as "savings-investment dynamics and policy paths underpin the case for yuan outperformance," while "technical factors reinforce this view but also highlight risk of a near-term pullback in the cross below PHP7.40."
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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