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PHP: USD/PHP Back Above All Key EMAs, PHP Seasonality Positive Into Year End

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USD/PHP is now back above all of its key EMAs, the pair last at 57.04, around 0.20% weaker in spot terms so far today. The 100-day EMA is nearby at 56.97. Current levels are back to mid August highs. PHP weakness so far today is bucking the broader trend in South East Asia FX, where most currencies have ticked higher against the USD.

  • It's difficult to pinpoint the source of PHP weakness in recent sessions, although the peso isn't the worst performer in the past week or in October to date. So we may be seeing some catch up with weakness elsewhere over this period (MYR, THB, IDR and KRW have all fallen more than PHP for October).
  • Cross asset trends have been supportive from an equity market standpoint, although up until recent sessions, with local equities moving off recent highs. Offshore equity inflows have been positive as well. Oil prices are off recent highs as well, a positive for the country's terms of trade backdrop, if sustained.  
  • Aug 16 highs in USD/PHP were near 57.30. Note that seasonality turns more positive for PHP into year end, with PHP gaining on average for Oct, Nov, Dec against the USD over the past 10yrs. This may help curb further upside, as remittances tend to improve into year end.
  • On the data front, tomorrow we have August trade figures. Next week is the BSP decision.  
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USD/PHP is now back above all of its key EMAs, the pair last at 57.04, around 0.20% weaker in spot terms so far today. The 100-day EMA is nearby at 56.97. Current levels are back to mid August highs. PHP weakness so far today is bucking the broader trend in South East Asia FX, where most currencies have ticked higher against the USD.

  • It's difficult to pinpoint the source of PHP weakness in recent sessions, although the peso isn't the worst performer in the past week or in October to date. So we may be seeing some catch up with weakness elsewhere over this period (MYR, THB, IDR and KRW have all fallen more than PHP for October).
  • Cross asset trends have been supportive from an equity market standpoint, although up until recent sessions, with local equities moving off recent highs. Offshore equity inflows have been positive as well. Oil prices are off recent highs as well, a positive for the country's terms of trade backdrop, if sustained.  
  • Aug 16 highs in USD/PHP were near 57.30. Note that seasonality turns more positive for PHP into year end, with PHP gaining on average for Oct, Nov, Dec against the USD over the past 10yrs. This may help curb further upside, as remittances tend to improve into year end.
  • On the data front, tomorrow we have August trade figures. Next week is the BSP decision.