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PHP: USD/PHP Remains Close To Record Highs At 59.00, Intervention Risks Eyed

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EM BulletPhilippinesBulletAPACEmerging Market News

USD/PHP sits in the 58.90/95 region in the first part of Friday dealings. We are slightly firmer in Peso terms for the session. Recent highs, with 59.00 reached yesterday (per BBG), remains the upside focus point in the pair. On the downside the 20-day EMA continues to track higher, last close to 58.50. The RSI (14) is elevated last near 66.5, but not yet in overbought territory. 

  • Given 59.00 is fresh record highs in the pair we wouldn't be surprised to see official rhetoric and or actual intervention on a break through this level.
  • Importers are reportedly supporting USD/PHP dips, per onshore analysis (BBG). the trade deficit has deteriorated in the past two quarters and remittance inflows are yet to influence through Q4 to date.  
  • USD/PHP remains tied to broader USD trends, with domestic data flow light until early Dec when the CPI for Nov prints. This will be a key input into the Dec BSP decision.
  • Cross asset headwinds persist from an equity market standpoint, with local equities rolling back over and the trend being for continued offshore investor sales. 
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USD/PHP sits in the 58.90/95 region in the first part of Friday dealings. We are slightly firmer in Peso terms for the session. Recent highs, with 59.00 reached yesterday (per BBG), remains the upside focus point in the pair. On the downside the 20-day EMA continues to track higher, last close to 58.50. The RSI (14) is elevated last near 66.5, but not yet in overbought territory. 

  • Given 59.00 is fresh record highs in the pair we wouldn't be surprised to see official rhetoric and or actual intervention on a break through this level.
  • Importers are reportedly supporting USD/PHP dips, per onshore analysis (BBG). the trade deficit has deteriorated in the past two quarters and remittance inflows are yet to influence through Q4 to date.  
  • USD/PHP remains tied to broader USD trends, with domestic data flow light until early Dec when the CPI for Nov prints. This will be a key input into the Dec BSP decision.
  • Cross asset headwinds persist from an equity market standpoint, with local equities rolling back over and the trend being for continued offshore investor sales.