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Pill to appear on panel from 10:00BST

  • BOE Chief Economist (and MPC member) Huw Pill will appear on a panel at the Marrakesh Economic Festival at 10:00BST with the topic of "The New Trilemma of Macroeconomic Policy: Future Policy Responses." Alongside Pill on the panel will be the ECB's Holzmann, Axel Weber (former Bundesbank President) and Chiara Scotti from the Dallas Fed.
  • Pill was one of the members voting for unchanged rates at the September MPC meeting and prior to that at his last big speech on 31 August he set out the "Table Mountain" and "Matterhorn" metaphors that have since become widely adopted. At that speech he said that: One option for policy is to hold rates steady for longer, I tend to favour that approach.
  • Ahead of Pill's speech markets are ricing in around a 25% probability of a hike in November with a cumulative total of around 12bp priced in by the February meeting (after which the curve begins to invert).
  • Pill's comments will be watched closely, but we think it is unlikely he changes tone in his discussion of policy today (particularly ahead of next week's labour market and inflation data).

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