MNI BRIEF: Output Gap Shut, Wage Growth Too Fast - BOE Greene

BRIEF: EU-Mercosur Deal In Final Negotiations - EC

MNI BRIEF: Limited Economic Impact Of French Crisis - EC

MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, Dec 5

MNI BRIEF: China Construction Output Slows In November

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY153 Bln via OMO Thursday

US EIA:NAT GAS STORAGE -30 BCF TO 3,937 BCF NOV 29 WK

MNI: CANADIAN OCT TRADE BALANCE CAD -0.9 BILLION

MNI: US OCT TRADE GAP -$73.8B VS SEP -$83.8B

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Pill: Would Expect NAIRU To Be Somewhat Higher Vs Pre-Pandemic

BOE
First question for BoE's Pill: If we focus on the unemployment gap, is it necessary for the unemployment rate to get back to NAIRU? And where is NAIRU relative to pre-pandemic?
  • A: This question identifies a key issue of debate. As apparent from MPC voting patterns, there are different views as to whether unemployment needs to rise to reassure we won't get inflation to continue to run above target levels.
  • Others think the surge in wage growth at end of furlough is related to job churn rising - and that rise in job churn was associated with high vacancies and wage growth picking up.
  • In the spectrum between these two, Pill sys he would put himself closer to the latter.
  • The NAIRU is more uncertain due to questions over participation. Will people re-enter or stay outside the labour market?
  • Would overall expect NAIRU to be somewhat higher. Have seen a terms of trade shock which will have a persistent impact on the NAIRU as the UK is a big importer of energy which squeezes national incomes.
  • Would expect NAIRU to be higher than pre-pandemic. Traditional measures of unemployment gap might not be the best way of measuring this.
HomepageBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.