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Placeholder Trade Ahead of US CPI Risks

FOREX
  • Early G10 trade this week has been largely a placeholder, with recent ranges being respected and price action lacking any meaningful conviction. The EUR is the firmest performing currency, helping EUR/GBP hold the recent bounce and keep prices anchored to the 200-dma of 0.8605.
  • Pre-positioning and tactical trade is likely ahead of this Wednesday's CPI release, at which markets expect inflation to slow to 3.4% from 3.5%.
  • EUR/CHF is trading on the front foot, helping the cross show above last week's highs and retrace the sell-off posted off 0.9837. Clearance here would open 0.9849 and levels last seen in May last year.
  • Japanese intervention risks remain in the background, with the PM Kishida again commenting overnight that his staff watching FX moves "closely". USD/JPY is continuing to fade the late April intervention sell-off, with prices creeping to 155.96 early today. The pair has now printed higher lows for six consecutive sessions.
  • The data and speaker schedule is typically light for a Monday, with no tier 1 releases on the docket. This leaves focus on Fed's Mester and Jefferson who appear at a Cleveland Fed event to discuss central bank communications strategy.
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