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PLN Continues to Appreciate in Defiance of NBP Intervention Risks

POLAND
  • EUR/PLN continues to defy expectations for NBP intervention, moving below 4.48 to test 4.4732 support.
  • The cross has dropped 1.93% from its peak on 28 Jan at 4.5609 in a substantial move that is unlikely to go unaddressed at today's NBP.
  • Although the base case is for no change to rates at 0.1%, we may hear a more aggressively dovish tone and threats of a 10bp cut, should the PLN continue on its current trajectory and fail to be contained by FX intervention.
  • The cross has erased all intervention gains since 29 Dec, but may get choppy today on the expectation of more ardent PLN jawboning.
  • Sup1: 4.4732, Sup2: 4.4648, Sup3: 4.4507, Res1: 4.4968, Res2: 4.5085
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News

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