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PLN: Easy Gains, Easy Losses?

POLAND
  • Even though market uncertainty remains extremely elevated globally, further ‘improvements’ in the Russia/Ukraine conflict could accelerated the momentum on CEE currencies.
  • After reaching an all-time high at 5, EURPLN has been retracing sharply lower this week, consolidating back towards the 4.80 level.
  • Key support to watch stands at 4.7550, which represents the high of the LT upward trending channel.
  • However, ‘buying the dip’ on markets (i.e. CEE currencies) could come with a cost due to the binary regime we are experiencing at the moment. Bad news on Russia/Ukraine would immediately be reflected by some PLN weakness against major crosses.
  • ST resistance to watch one the topside stands at 4.89 (150% projection of 4.4030 – 4.7550 range), followed by 4.9220 (161.8% Fibo).

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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