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PLN: EUR/PLN Crosses Above 4.35 As Zloty Remains On Defensive

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EUR/PLN resumes gains, breaking above 4.35 for the first time since mid-June. The pair last deals at 4.3520, 53 pips higher on the day, with bulls looking for a move through Jun 14 high of 4.3826. Note that the RSI has entered overbought territory and last sits at 73.1, while the pair is flirting with the upper Bollinger band (4.3485). Bears look for a pullback towards Oct 14 low of 4.2879.

  • ING write that a further upward move in EUR/PLN at the turn of the week cannot be ruled out, even as technical signals are pointing to an imminent slowdown and correction/decline. However, they note that previous waves of PLN depreciation were short-lived and followed by a practically full unwinding of those losses. ING think this will be the case this time around as well and EUR/PLN may fall to 4.27-4.28, albeit likely after the US election, with the prospect of returning to 4.25 by the year-end.
  • Finance Minister Domanski said that Poland will issue EUR13bn-15bn worth of EUR- and USD- denominated bonds next year but is not planning to issue any more FX-denominated debt this year.
  • POLGB yields have ticked away from session lows but still sit below neutral levels. The WIG20 Index is 0.3% worse off on the day.
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EUR/PLN resumes gains, breaking above 4.35 for the first time since mid-June. The pair last deals at 4.3520, 53 pips higher on the day, with bulls looking for a move through Jun 14 high of 4.3826. Note that the RSI has entered overbought territory and last sits at 73.1, while the pair is flirting with the upper Bollinger band (4.3485). Bears look for a pullback towards Oct 14 low of 4.2879.

  • ING write that a further upward move in EUR/PLN at the turn of the week cannot be ruled out, even as technical signals are pointing to an imminent slowdown and correction/decline. However, they note that previous waves of PLN depreciation were short-lived and followed by a practically full unwinding of those losses. ING think this will be the case this time around as well and EUR/PLN may fall to 4.27-4.28, albeit likely after the US election, with the prospect of returning to 4.25 by the year-end.
  • Finance Minister Domanski said that Poland will issue EUR13bn-15bn worth of EUR- and USD- denominated bonds next year but is not planning to issue any more FX-denominated debt this year.
  • POLGB yields have ticked away from session lows but still sit below neutral levels. The WIG20 Index is 0.3% worse off on the day.