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PLN & HUF Firm as NBP FX Sales Scare Subsides

CEE FX
  • EUR/PLN opens lower in line with EM peers on favourable risk sentiment, despite recent upside pressure on spot from NBP FX sales.
  • Moves higher have been met with RSI divergence on shorter time-frames, showing flagging upside momentum in thin volumes.
  • Concern remains for NBP intervention below 4.50 (in line with 50dma), with traders fading dips towards 4.47.
  • Daily levels - Sup1: 4.4885 (near 200dma), Sup2: 4.4804, Sup3: 4.4682. Res1: 4.5130, Res2: 4.5179.
  • EUR/HUF trading lower, similar to PLN and CEE peers.
  • Favourable risk sentiment may see some downside emerge today, provided the NBP holds off on FX sales.
  • 1w deposit rate will likely remain at 0.75% for the foreseeable future given increased FX volatility.
  • Risk-on may see spot drift back to the 50dma at 360.38, with a move through 360.00 opening up a more comprehensive move lower.
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News

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