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PLN: Light Pressure Hits Zloty, Participants Monitor CPI Readings Abroad

PLN
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EUR/PLN has edged higher following two consecutive days of losses. The rate last deals +47 pips at 4.3013. The initial key layer of resistance is provided by Aug 9 high of 4.3309. Conversely, bears look for losses towards the 50-EMA at 4.2880.

  • MPC's Joanna Tyrowicz wrote in a LinkedIn post that the NBP's projections systematically underestimate the pace of wage hikes, actual wage growth being around 2pp faster than forecasted. She added that feeding slower wage growth into the forecasting model allows to keep projected inflation in check. Note that Tyrowicz is the only MPC members still seeking an interest-rate hike.
  • CPI releases dominate the regional and global economic calendar. The focus in the CE3 space this morning fell on a below-forecast inflation print in Hungary and an above-forecast inflation print in Czechia. US CPI will be out later in the day.
  • POLGB yields are 0.3-2.8bp higher across the curve. The Finance Ministry sold PLN10bn worth of bonds maturing between 2027 and 2036 yesterday, attracting demand for PLN12.3bn. It then sold a further PLN931mn at a top-up auction. Demand at the previous auction held last month amounted to PLN13.5bn.
  • The WIG20 Index trades 0.8% shy of neutral levels.
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EUR/PLN has edged higher following two consecutive days of losses. The rate last deals +47 pips at 4.3013. The initial key layer of resistance is provided by Aug 9 high of 4.3309. Conversely, bears look for losses towards the 50-EMA at 4.2880.

  • MPC's Joanna Tyrowicz wrote in a LinkedIn post that the NBP's projections systematically underestimate the pace of wage hikes, actual wage growth being around 2pp faster than forecasted. She added that feeding slower wage growth into the forecasting model allows to keep projected inflation in check. Note that Tyrowicz is the only MPC members still seeking an interest-rate hike.
  • CPI releases dominate the regional and global economic calendar. The focus in the CE3 space this morning fell on a below-forecast inflation print in Hungary and an above-forecast inflation print in Czechia. US CPI will be out later in the day.
  • POLGB yields are 0.3-2.8bp higher across the curve. The Finance Ministry sold PLN10bn worth of bonds maturing between 2027 and 2036 yesterday, attracting demand for PLN12.3bn. It then sold a further PLN931mn at a top-up auction. Demand at the previous auction held last month amounted to PLN13.5bn.
  • The WIG20 Index trades 0.8% shy of neutral levels.