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PLN Little Changed After Release Of Data, Interest Rate Markets Experience Corrective Moves


EUR/PLN remains in a sideways trend, last trading virtually unchanged at 4.4539. The familiar technical picture remains in play, with bulls looking for a break above the 50-EMA, which kicks in at 4.4829. On the flip side, bears keep an eye on 4.4138, which limited losses on Jul 4.

  • Poland's wages adjusted for inflation returned to growth for the first time since July 2022, which should drive a recovery in consumer demand going forward. Elsewhere, the decline in industrial output was slightly smaller than expected, while factory-gate inflation missed forecasts.
  • The details of yesterday's consumer confidence survey may have slipped under the radar, but an improvement in headline index came alongside a surprise uptick in inflation expectations. In their research note, mBank flag this as a thing to watch in the coming months, even as for now the move was very limited.
  • POLGB yields and the local FRA curve underwent some correction from cyclical lows printed earlier this week, despite the absence of any obvious domestic catalysts. Santander and Bank Millenium both call this adjustment "expected," citing their view that the market had priced too much NBP easing.
  • The Finance Ministry said that it will auction PLN4-8bn worth of OK1025, PS0728, WZ1128, DS1033 and WS0447 bonds on Friday.

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