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PLN Relief Rally to Be Short Lived; Sell-Side Shifts UW CEE

POLAND
  • * EUR/PLN opens lower in line with improving risk sentiment and a softer USD.
  • The cross has pulled back from overbought territory and recouped just less than 38.2% of its recent weakening trend (est 22 Feb).
  • The covid situation continues to worsen with cases accelerating above 17k/day, despite a robust vaccination effort.
  • This has forced the sell-side to shift underweight CEE, with a focus on HUF & PLN - PLN mostly due to Glapinski's ultra-dovish posturing, however.
  • So, it seems that while we may see a relief rally in PLN towards the 50% fib (4.5422), downside will likely be short-lived.
  • Focus today on the ECB's tone regarding PEPP and concerns about rising yields.
  • Intraday Sup1: 4.5610, Sup2: 4.5515, Res1: 4.5775, Res2: 4.5823
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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