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PLN Remains ‘Fundamentally’ Undervalued

POLAND
  • Polish President Andrzej Duda is traveling to Bulgaria and Romania for consultations before NATO summit on Thursday and the visit of U.S. President Joe Biden (BBG).
  • Poland will extend a swap line of as much as $1 billion to neighbor Ukraine according to the NBP.
  • With the FRA 3Mx6M currently trading at 146bps above the Wibor 3M, forward rates are currently pricing in a terminal rate at 5%.
  • The trajectory of the terminal will also strongly depend on the PLN ‘valuation’.
  • Despite the sharp recovery in the past two weeks, PLN is still fundamentally ‘undervalued’ relative to main crosses such as the US Dollar or the Euro.
  • Yesterday, economic data shows that retail sales decelerated to 16.5% YoY in February (vs. 16.6% exp.), down from 20% the previous month.
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