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PLN: Sustained Weakness in Crude Unable to Offer Zloty Relief

PLN

The Polish zloty remains the poorest performing currency in the EMEA region, as continued weakness in crude oil contributes to the risk-off tone across markets, weighing on oil-tied currencies and EM FX.

  • Though Poland is a notable energy-importer, the zloty is seeing little reprieve and lags its peers substantially, with PLN down 1% against the dollar and a more moderate 0.75% lower versus the euro.
  • Today’s price action in EURPLN has resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA at 4.2914. A clear break could signal scope for a stronger bounce and open 4.3233, the May 8 high. For now, the move higher appears to be corrective from a technical standpoint.
  • Local focus shifts to the NBP rate decision tomorrow, where the central bank is widely expected to stand pat on rates (see our preview here). Governor Adam Glapinski will hold his press conference the following day.

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