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PLN, Weakest-Performing EM FX Since Mid-January

POLAND
  • The rise in geopolitical tensions in January has been weighing on CEE currencies, particularly PLN, which is the most vulnerable currency among the region due to Poland’s relatively bigger dependence on imports from Russia.
  • PLN is the weakest performing currency among the EM world since mid-January (2022), the zloty is down 2.2% against the USD (see chart).
  • A weak PLN puts Polish policymakers in a difficult position ahead of the NBP meeting on February 8 as a depreciating currency keeps supporting inflation expectations.
  • A 50bps hike seems likely given policymakers’ recent speeches, which would levitate the policy rate to 2.75%, its highest level since June 2013.

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