MNI: EUROZONE DECEMBER CONSTRUCTION PMI 42.9 (NOV 42.7)

MNI China Press Digest Jan 7: CPI, New Loans, Local Bonds

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY150.6 Bln via OMO Tuesday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1879 Tues; -2.42% Y/Y

MNI China Daily Summary: Monday, January 6

MNI INTERVIEW2: China Central Gov Should Buy Unsold Houses

MNI: FRANCE DEC HICP +0.2% M/M, +1.8% Y/Y

MNI: SWISS DEC CPI -0.1% M/M, +0.6% Y/Y

MNI: AUSTRALIA NOV BUILDING APPROVALS -3.6% M/M, +3.2% Y/Y

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2025 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

PLN: Zloty Barely Changed After Release Of Flash CPI Data

PLN
PolandCEEMEAEM BulletBulletEmerging Market News

EUR/PLN has edged lower and last trades at 4.3047, with the rate struggling to stage a convincing break of the nearby 100-/200-DMAs (4.3016/4.3009). The recent crossover between these DMAs is a bullish signal, which comes on the back of a "golden cross" earlier in the month. However, the rate has been generally trading with a bearish bias since turmoil at the beginning of November, with bears eyeing Oct 14 low of 4.2867 for firmer support. Bulls keep an eye on Nov 6 high of 4.3758 and Jun 14 high of 4.3826.

  • Headline inflation eased to +4.6% Y/Y this month from +5.0% prior, according to preliminary data from Statistics Poland. The decrease may be temporary and driven by the statistical base effect. Another flare-up is expected at the turn of the year, before inflation starts cooling towards the tolerance band around the central bank's target.
  • NBP's Kochalski said that the government's decisions on energy prices may bring rate cuts forward, although loose fiscal policy pulls in the opposite direction. Still, he views a rate cut already in March 2025 as a reasonably realistic prospect. This marks possibly the most dovish comment out of the NBP to date, with officials consistently ruling out any policy action before the publication of the next macroeconomic forecast in March.
  • POLGB curve has shifted lower, runs a tad flatter, with yields last seen 4.6-6.4bp below neutral levels. 
228 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

EUR/PLN has edged lower and last trades at 4.3047, with the rate struggling to stage a convincing break of the nearby 100-/200-DMAs (4.3016/4.3009). The recent crossover between these DMAs is a bullish signal, which comes on the back of a "golden cross" earlier in the month. However, the rate has been generally trading with a bearish bias since turmoil at the beginning of November, with bears eyeing Oct 14 low of 4.2867 for firmer support. Bulls keep an eye on Nov 6 high of 4.3758 and Jun 14 high of 4.3826.

  • Headline inflation eased to +4.6% Y/Y this month from +5.0% prior, according to preliminary data from Statistics Poland. The decrease may be temporary and driven by the statistical base effect. Another flare-up is expected at the turn of the year, before inflation starts cooling towards the tolerance band around the central bank's target.
  • NBP's Kochalski said that the government's decisions on energy prices may bring rate cuts forward, although loose fiscal policy pulls in the opposite direction. Still, he views a rate cut already in March 2025 as a reasonably realistic prospect. This marks possibly the most dovish comment out of the NBP to date, with officials consistently ruling out any policy action before the publication of the next macroeconomic forecast in March.
  • POLGB curve has shifted lower, runs a tad flatter, with yields last seen 4.6-6.4bp below neutral levels.