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PLN: Zloty Holds Steady

PLN
PolandCEEMEAEM BulletBulletGlobalEmerging Market NewsRegion

EUR/PLN last trades at 4.2740, a touch lower on the session. Bears continue to look for a sell-off towards the 4.25 support zone and cyclical lows at 4.2471. Conversely, a break above Aug 28/Sep 12 highs of 4.3039/43 would support the bullish case.

  • NBP's Kotecki said that the central bank could start loosening monetary policy in early 2025, delivering no more than 100bp worth of cuts through the entire next year. ING commented that they expect the first 25bp cut in 2Q2025, bringing the reference rate to 4.75% at the end of next year. Santander see room for 125bp worth of cuts in 2025, which would bring the reference rate to 4.50%.
  • The NBP wrote in its Monetary Policy Guidelines for 2025 that "after a strong rise in the second half of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025 – consumer price dynamics in Poland should gradually decrease towards the NBP inflation target." The inflation target was maintained at +2.5% Y/Y with a +/- 1pp tolerance band.
  • Market participants will be alert to the outcomes of a special cabinet meeting slated for Saturday, with ministers set to discuss potential amendments to the 2025 budget amid the need to repair the damage caused by recent floods.
  • POLGBs are firmer across the curve, with yields last sitting 4.2-7.1bp lower. The WIG20 Index stays close to unchanged levels.
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EUR/PLN last trades at 4.2740, a touch lower on the session. Bears continue to look for a sell-off towards the 4.25 support zone and cyclical lows at 4.2471. Conversely, a break above Aug 28/Sep 12 highs of 4.3039/43 would support the bullish case.

  • NBP's Kotecki said that the central bank could start loosening monetary policy in early 2025, delivering no more than 100bp worth of cuts through the entire next year. ING commented that they expect the first 25bp cut in 2Q2025, bringing the reference rate to 4.75% at the end of next year. Santander see room for 125bp worth of cuts in 2025, which would bring the reference rate to 4.50%.
  • The NBP wrote in its Monetary Policy Guidelines for 2025 that "after a strong rise in the second half of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025 – consumer price dynamics in Poland should gradually decrease towards the NBP inflation target." The inflation target was maintained at +2.5% Y/Y with a +/- 1pp tolerance band.
  • Market participants will be alert to the outcomes of a special cabinet meeting slated for Saturday, with ministers set to discuss potential amendments to the 2025 budget amid the need to repair the damage caused by recent floods.
  • POLGBs are firmer across the curve, with yields last sitting 4.2-7.1bp lower. The WIG20 Index stays close to unchanged levels.