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PLN: Zloty Pauses Gains, Economic Activity Data Eyed This Week

PLN

EUR/PLN has edged higher and last deals +31 pips at 4.2688, with the zloty pausing last week's gains. Should the pair resume losses, bears would set their sights on the 4.25 area (and May 28/Jul 15 lows of 4.2471 specifically). Conversely, bulls look for a rally towards Aug 9/Jul 2 highs of 4.3309/21.

  • ING write that EUR/PLN may fall towards 4.25 this week, while 4.23 seems to be a technical target for this month. Pekao think that the improvement of global sentiment may continue to support the zloty today.
  • POLGB yields are marginally firmer across the curve. 10-year POLGB/Bund spread continues to move away from cyclical narrows printed earlier this month and last sits at 311bp.
  • The recovery rally in WIG20 has run out of steam after the index returned above its 200-DMA last Friday. It has held a tight range this morning, operating just shy of neutral levels.
  • Statistics Poland will release monthly economic activity data for July on Wednesday and Thursday. The data will offer an insight into the state of the economy at the outset of Q3.
  • Separately, the NBP's MPC holds a meeting tomorrow, but it will be a non-decision one.
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