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PLN: Zloty Steadies Towards End Of Week, Strong POLGB Auction Supports FI Space

PLN
PolandCEEMEAEM BulletBulletEmerging Market News

EUR/PLN has stabilised after a three-day winning streak driven by escalatory steps taken by Russia and Ukraine in their ongoing conflict, with no further major developments on that front this morning. This allows the zloty to get some reprieve, with EUR/PLN last seen at 4.3428, little changed on the session. Losses past Nov 7 low of 4.3089 would support the bearish case, while bulls look for renewed gains towards Nov 6 high of 4.3758 and Jun 14 high of 4.3826.

  • Economic activity data for October started tricking through yesterday, with a weaker-than-expected construction output offering further evidence of continued weakness in the sector. ING noted that the contraction deepened despite a more favourable calendar. Local sell-side analysts noted that the weak outturn bodes ill for 4Q2024 GDP but the full package of activity data will provide a more complete picture, with some noting that the construction industry is under pressure from high interest rates and a cyclical pause in EU funding for infrastructural projects.
  • Statistics Poland will release the remainder of October activity data early next week, starting with wages, employment, industrial output and PPI on Monday.
  • NBP's Dabrowski wrote on X that accounting for transmission lags, the rate-cutting cycle should start at the beginning of 3Q2025. If inflation outturns are more benign than expected, this could be brought forward to March-April 2025.
  • POLGB curve has bull steepened, yields sit 5.2-7.1bp lower. The Finance Ministry yesterday sold PLN8bn of bonds at a regular auction, attracting strong demand (PLN15.28bn). The bid/cover ratio at the WZ0330 offering reached as much as 7.99x.
  • The WIG20 Index has tumbled 1.5% after two consecutive days in the green.
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EUR/PLN has stabilised after a three-day winning streak driven by escalatory steps taken by Russia and Ukraine in their ongoing conflict, with no further major developments on that front this morning. This allows the zloty to get some reprieve, with EUR/PLN last seen at 4.3428, little changed on the session. Losses past Nov 7 low of 4.3089 would support the bearish case, while bulls look for renewed gains towards Nov 6 high of 4.3758 and Jun 14 high of 4.3826.

  • Economic activity data for October started tricking through yesterday, with a weaker-than-expected construction output offering further evidence of continued weakness in the sector. ING noted that the contraction deepened despite a more favourable calendar. Local sell-side analysts noted that the weak outturn bodes ill for 4Q2024 GDP but the full package of activity data will provide a more complete picture, with some noting that the construction industry is under pressure from high interest rates and a cyclical pause in EU funding for infrastructural projects.
  • Statistics Poland will release the remainder of October activity data early next week, starting with wages, employment, industrial output and PPI on Monday.
  • NBP's Dabrowski wrote on X that accounting for transmission lags, the rate-cutting cycle should start at the beginning of 3Q2025. If inflation outturns are more benign than expected, this could be brought forward to March-April 2025.
  • POLGB curve has bull steepened, yields sit 5.2-7.1bp lower. The Finance Ministry yesterday sold PLN8bn of bonds at a regular auction, attracting strong demand (PLN15.28bn). The bid/cover ratio at the WZ0330 offering reached as much as 7.99x.
  • The WIG20 Index has tumbled 1.5% after two consecutive days in the green.