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PLN: Zloty Tad Firmer, NBP Rate Outlook Under Microscope

PLN
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EUR/PLN trades at 4.2930, down 92 pips on the day, and a familiar technical picture remains in play. Bears keep an eye on the 50-EMA at 4.2882, followed by the key 4.25 area. Conversely, bulls see Aug 9 high of 4.3309 as their initial aim.

  • NBP's Maslowska said that in her view the central bank could start cutting rates at the start of 2Q2025, delivering the total of 50-75bp worth of easing next year. The second and third cuts could be delivered in 2H2025.
  • Pekao commented that Maslowska's forecast is roughly consistent with their call, albeit they expect the first cut to be delivered in March (since the new projection will already be known) and the total amount of easing in 2025 to reach 100bp.
  • The next closed-doors meeting of a parliamentary committee investigating NBP Governor Adam Glapinski will take place on October 15. The Governor had earlier said that
  • POLGBs are marginally firmer on the day, despite erasing the bulk of opening gains. The WIG20 Index sits ~1% higher on the session.
  • ING wrote that they expect EUR/PLN to return below 4.30 at the turn of the week after the zloty proved resilient amid the recent tensions in the markets.
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EUR/PLN trades at 4.2930, down 92 pips on the day, and a familiar technical picture remains in play. Bears keep an eye on the 50-EMA at 4.2882, followed by the key 4.25 area. Conversely, bulls see Aug 9 high of 4.3309 as their initial aim.

  • NBP's Maslowska said that in her view the central bank could start cutting rates at the start of 2Q2025, delivering the total of 50-75bp worth of easing next year. The second and third cuts could be delivered in 2H2025.
  • Pekao commented that Maslowska's forecast is roughly consistent with their call, albeit they expect the first cut to be delivered in March (since the new projection will already be known) and the total amount of easing in 2025 to reach 100bp.
  • The next closed-doors meeting of a parliamentary committee investigating NBP Governor Adam Glapinski will take place on October 15. The Governor had earlier said that
  • POLGBs are marginally firmer on the day, despite erasing the bulk of opening gains. The WIG20 Index sits ~1% higher on the session.
  • ING wrote that they expect EUR/PLN to return below 4.30 at the turn of the week after the zloty proved resilient amid the recent tensions in the markets.