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PLN: Zloty Tad Weaker, Q3 GDP Composition Surprises Observers

PLN
PolandCEEMEAEM BulletBulletEmerging Market News

EUR/PLN last deals at 4.3075, 40 pips higher on the session. Despite a marginal uptick today, the pair continues to be heavy, following a period of heightened volatility surrounding the US presidential election and escalatory steps in the Russo-Ukrainian war. Bears look for a dip towards Oct 14 low of 4.2867, while bulls keep an eye on Nov 6 high of 4.3758, followed by Jun 14 high of 4.3826.

  • Statistics Poland confirmed Q3 GDP growth at +2.7% Y/Y. Local analysts pointed to the rather odd composition of growth as inventories were the sole driver of growth amid weak outturns for consumption, investments and exports. Commenting on the data, mBank wrote that it was probably a sign of an unexpected slowdown in demand (which might be a statistical artefact), but early high-frequency data suggest that the economy started Q4 on a firmer footing. ING were more pessimistic, noting that the rebound in retail sales in October was too small to assuage concerns about weaker consumption.
  • NBP Deputy Governor Kightley (not an MPC member) played down potential for deep rate cuts next year, while MPC's hawkish dissenter Tyrowicz said that wages continue to grow at a robust pace while ex-ante real interest rates are low.
  • POLGB have pulled back from highs but yields still sit 0.4-1.7bp lower on the session. The WIG20 Index has added 0.4% this morning.
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EUR/PLN last deals at 4.3075, 40 pips higher on the session. Despite a marginal uptick today, the pair continues to be heavy, following a period of heightened volatility surrounding the US presidential election and escalatory steps in the Russo-Ukrainian war. Bears look for a dip towards Oct 14 low of 4.2867, while bulls keep an eye on Nov 6 high of 4.3758, followed by Jun 14 high of 4.3826.

  • Statistics Poland confirmed Q3 GDP growth at +2.7% Y/Y. Local analysts pointed to the rather odd composition of growth as inventories were the sole driver of growth amid weak outturns for consumption, investments and exports. Commenting on the data, mBank wrote that it was probably a sign of an unexpected slowdown in demand (which might be a statistical artefact), but early high-frequency data suggest that the economy started Q4 on a firmer footing. ING were more pessimistic, noting that the rebound in retail sales in October was too small to assuage concerns about weaker consumption.
  • NBP Deputy Governor Kightley (not an MPC member) played down potential for deep rate cuts next year, while MPC's hawkish dissenter Tyrowicz said that wages continue to grow at a robust pace while ex-ante real interest rates are low.
  • POLGB have pulled back from highs but yields still sit 0.4-1.7bp lower on the session. The WIG20 Index has added 0.4% this morning.