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PM Giuseppe Conte faces an important two days. He is due to give an address to the Chamber of Deputies today and the Senate tomorrow in an effort to stave off a collapse of the gov't, which lost its majority last week following the withdrawal of former PM Matteo Renzi's Italia Viva party.
- It seems that talks over the weekend have won Conte enough support to avoid a defeat in the Chamber of Deputies, but perhaps not in the Senate, which is due to vote tomorrow. Conte may be able to avoid defeat if a large number of senators abstain, but it is unclear whether President Sergio Mattarella would allow a Conte gov't to continue if it could not command a majority in both chambers of parliament.
- Latest opinion poll in Italy continues to show that should the current political crisis engulfing the gov't result in a snap election, then the right-wing bloc led by former Deputy PM Matteo Salvini's League (Lega) would be in the best position to form a gov't.
- BiDiMedia: League: 24% (+1), Democratic Party: 22%, Brothers of Italy: 16% (-1), 5-Star Movement: 13% (=), Forza Italia: 8% (+1), Free and Equal: 3% (=), Action: 3% (=), Italia Viva: 3% (=) +/- vs. 13-16 Dec. '20. Fieldwork: 10-13 January 2021, Sample size: 1,555
- From the above poll the right bloc (League, Brothers, Forza) would total 48% to the left bloc (Democratic, 5-Star, Free and Equal, Italia Viva)'s 41%. Based on these percentages, the Italian electoral system would likely deliver a majority to the right.