PM Conte Looks Set To Win Vote In Chamber Of Dep, But Senate Vote Tougher

PM Giuseppe Conte faces an important two days. He is due to give an address to the Chamber of Deputies today and the Senate tomorrow in an effort to stave off a collapse of the gov't, which lost its majority last week following the withdrawal of former PM Matteo Renzi's Italia Viva party.

• It seems that talks over the weekend have won Conte enough support to avoid a defeat in the Chamber of Deputies, but perhaps not in the Senate, which is due to vote tomorrow. Conte may be able to avoid defeat if a large number of senators abstain, but it is unclear whether President Sergio Mattarella would allow a Conte gov't to continue if it could not command a majority in both chambers of parliament.
• Latest opinion poll in Italy continues to show that should the current political crisis engulfing the gov't result in a snap election, then the right-wing bloc led by former Deputy PM Matteo Salvini's League (Lega) would be in the best position to form a gov't.
• BiDiMedia: League: 24% (+1), Democratic Party: 22%, Brothers of Italy: 16% (-1), 5-Star Movement: 13% (=), Forza Italia: 8% (+1), Free and Equal: 3% (=), Action: 3% (=), Italia Viva: 3% (=) +/- vs. 13-16 Dec. '20. Fieldwork: 10-13 January 2021, Sample size: 1,555
• From the above poll the right bloc (League, Brothers, Forza) would total 48% to the left bloc (Democratic, 5-Star, Free and Equal, Italia Viva)'s 41%. Based on these percentages, the Italian electoral system would likely deliver a majority to the right.