PM Rutte Remains On Course For 4th Term as Polls Hold Steady

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte remains on course for a fourth consecutive term in office according to recent opinion polls released ahead of the 17 March general election.

• Ipsos poll: (Seat projection) - People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD): 38 (-2), Party for Freedom (PVV): 22 (+2), Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA): 20, Democrats-66 9D66): 15, Labour Party (PvdA): 12, Green-Left (GL): 11 (-1), Socialist Party (SP): 10 (+1), Party for the Animals (PvdD): 7 (+1), Christian Union (CU): 6. Others 9. +/- vs. 22-25 Jan. Fieldwork: 14-16 Feb. 2021. Sample size: 1,035
• Peil.nl poll: (Seat projection) - VVD: 35, PVV: 24, CDA: 18, D66: 13, PvdA: 13, GL: 9, SP: 9, PvdD: 7, CU: 7. Others 14. +/- vs. 7 Feb 2021. Fieldwork: 14 Feb. 2021. Sample size: 1,035
• Based on these polls, Rutte's centre-right liberal VVD would be well placed to lead the next coalition gov't. Possible coalition partners include the centrist CDA, liberal D66, and centre-left PvdA. All of these parties are pro-EU, but have supported Rutte's hardline stance on EU fiscal transfers as part of the 'frugal four' member states, and this is unlikely to change after the election no matter the exact composition of the gov't.
• The right-wing populistlist PVV of Geert Wilders looks set to secure second place in the nationwide vote and seat total (distributed on a proportional basis), just as it did in the 2017 election.
• Wilders' PVV is one of the most long-standing and successful right-wing populist parties in western Europe, having supported Rutte's first gov't in a confidence-and-supply agreement from 2010 to 2012. However, Wilders' eurosceptic, anti-Islam policies have failed to broaden his appeal beyond his party's core support. As such his party is unlikely to have any significant influence on politics post-election.