PM Sunak To Remain Under Pressure As Another By-Election Looms

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is set to remain under pressure into the new year following the likely suspension of an MP from his governing Conservative party that could result in another parliamentary by-election. The centre-right Conservatives have already lost four by-elections in 2023, and another loss in early 2024 could raise the prospect of Sunak facing a leadership challenge ahead of the next general election.

• Scott Benton, MP for Blackpool South, faces a 35-day suspension for a 'very serious breach' of standards rules according to the House of Commons Standards committee relating to a lobbying stingcarried out by The Times newspaper. A suspension of 10 days or more allows for a recall petition, which results in a by-election if more than 10% of constituents offer their signature.
• The Blackpool South constituency was held by the centre-left Labour party from 1997 until 2019 when the Conservatives won it with a majority of 3.690.
• Sunak is already facing a difficult legislative outlook in the new year, with the right of his party threatening to vote down his flagship Rwanda bill, intended to curtail illegal immigration.
• Political betting markets still show Sunak as the most likely candidate to lead the Conservatives into the next election, but the implied probability of this scenario has fallen in recent days. Bettors assign a 71.9% implied probability that Sunak remains Conservative leader until the next GE, down from 82.6% on 6 Dec.

Source: Smarkets