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PMIs surprise to the upside but price pressures begin to ease

UK DATA
  • UK PMI data has surprised to the upside (bucking the trend seen in French, German and Eurozone data earlier this morning). The details appear relatively strong - particularly with new orders growing. Price pressures appear to be easing somewhat, however, which partly explains why SONIA futures have only pulled back 2-3 ticks of the rally they have seen this morning. Highlights from the press release:
  • "New order volumes across the UK private sector as a whole increased moderately in July, driven by a sustained rise in new work across the service economy. A number of firms attributed higher workloads to resilient consumer spending on travel and leisure services. In contrast, manufacturing companies signalled a further reduction in sales volumes and the rate of decline was the fastest for just over two years. Weaker demand led to the steepest drop in backlogs of work at manufacturing firms since June 2020."
  • "Solid rise in private sector employment, despite the pace of job creation easing to a 16-month low... some firms reported that shortages of candidates and concerns about the demand outlook had led to the non-replacement of leavers."
  • "Input cost inflation moderated for the second month running... This signalled the slowest rate of inflation since September 2021."
  • "Further slowdown in prices charged inflation at private sector companies. The latest rise in output charges was the least marked since January, reflecting some efforts to moderate price increases in the wake of softer customer demand."
  • "Private sector firms remain relatively cautious about the business outlook, despite a slight improvement from June’s 25-month low amid stronger optimism in the service economy"
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  • UK PMI data has surprised to the upside (bucking the trend seen in French, German and Eurozone data earlier this morning). The details appear relatively strong - particularly with new orders growing. Price pressures appear to be easing somewhat, however, which partly explains why SONIA futures have only pulled back 2-3 ticks of the rally they have seen this morning. Highlights from the press release:
  • "New order volumes across the UK private sector as a whole increased moderately in July, driven by a sustained rise in new work across the service economy. A number of firms attributed higher workloads to resilient consumer spending on travel and leisure services. In contrast, manufacturing companies signalled a further reduction in sales volumes and the rate of decline was the fastest for just over two years. Weaker demand led to the steepest drop in backlogs of work at manufacturing firms since June 2020."
  • "Solid rise in private sector employment, despite the pace of job creation easing to a 16-month low... some firms reported that shortages of candidates and concerns about the demand outlook had led to the non-replacement of leavers."
  • "Input cost inflation moderated for the second month running... This signalled the slowest rate of inflation since September 2021."
  • "Further slowdown in prices charged inflation at private sector companies. The latest rise in output charges was the least marked since January, reflecting some efforts to moderate price increases in the wake of softer customer demand."
  • "Private sector firms remain relatively cautious about the business outlook, despite a slight improvement from June’s 25-month low amid stronger optimism in the service economy"