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PMIs the highlights for the day ahead

MARKET INSIGHT
  • The main focus for the day will be on preliminary PMI survey data with expectations that the French, German, Eurozone and UK prints all fall from their October levels for both manufacturing and services.
  • Part of the fall in PMI indices is expected to be merely due to a moderation of growth, but there will also be some in the market looking for the PMIs to reflect increasing risks of lockdowns across much of the Eurozone.
  • It is important to note that the surveys tend to open around the 12th of the month and much of the data will be collected in the first few days, which may be too early to have too much of an impact on the recent lockdown announcement in Austria and talk of potential lockdowns in Germany. With this in mind, an upside surprise is unlikely to have too much market impact while a downside surprise is likely to move markets more.
  • The UK PMIs were strong last month, particularly for services, while also citing higher wages and higher inflation. There seem to be more two-way risks for UK markets with today's prints than for the Eurozone.
  • In terms of speeches, there are no ECB speakers scheduled during the European trading day. BOE's Haskel is a known dove and is thought to be unlikely to be in any rush to vote for a hike (more likely to dissent when a hike occurs). Given this, unless there is a significant change of tone, his comments at 11:00GMT are likely to be ignored. Bailey and Cunliffe appear before the Lords EAC from 15:00GMT but are tesifying on CBDCs, so unlikely to speak on monpol.
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