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POLAND: Cabinet Holds Weekly Meeting

POLAND
PolandCEEMEAEM BulletBulletGlobalEmerging Market NewsRegion
  • Forecasts of a 3% Y/Y GDP growth this year are being questioned in the light of recent activity data. Credit Agricole have recently lowered their projection for 2024 to +2.3% Y//Y from +2.8% previously, despite already sitting towards the bottom of the forecast range with their earlier estimate. Pekao see this year's growth at +3.0% Y/Y but note that a weaker external environment (especially in Germany), high NBP interest rates and the fact that post-Covid EU aid will start stimulating investments only in 2025 weigh on forecasts. Meanwhile, Citi Handlowy yesterday warned that monetary policy has become considerably more restrictive than a year or two years ago and may have a negative impact on economic growth going forward. Another round of revisions to sell-side forecasts can be expected on August 14, when Statistics Poland publishes flash Q2 GDP data. The Finance Ministry currently expects the economy to grow by 3.1% Y/Y this year.
  • Money.pl reports that the ruling coalition is considering holding off on the adoption of bills reforming the Constitutional Tribunal until the 2025 presidential election amid expectations that incumbent President Andrzej Duda would veto the legislation.
  • The cabinet holds its weekly meeting from 10:00BST/11:00CEST.
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  • Forecasts of a 3% Y/Y GDP growth this year are being questioned in the light of recent activity data. Credit Agricole have recently lowered their projection for 2024 to +2.3% Y//Y from +2.8% previously, despite already sitting towards the bottom of the forecast range with their earlier estimate. Pekao see this year's growth at +3.0% Y/Y but note that a weaker external environment (especially in Germany), high NBP interest rates and the fact that post-Covid EU aid will start stimulating investments only in 2025 weigh on forecasts. Meanwhile, Citi Handlowy yesterday warned that monetary policy has become considerably more restrictive than a year or two years ago and may have a negative impact on economic growth going forward. Another round of revisions to sell-side forecasts can be expected on August 14, when Statistics Poland publishes flash Q2 GDP data. The Finance Ministry currently expects the economy to grow by 3.1% Y/Y this year.
  • Money.pl reports that the ruling coalition is considering holding off on the adoption of bills reforming the Constitutional Tribunal until the 2025 presidential election amid expectations that incumbent President Andrzej Duda would veto the legislation.
  • The cabinet holds its weekly meeting from 10:00BST/11:00CEST.