POLAND: Consumption Powers Above-Forecast Growth In Q2

Statistics Poland released flash Q2 GDP data, with growth accelerating to +3.2% Y/Y from +2.0% prior, overshooting the consensus forecast of +3.2%. This comes after PM Tusk said that the NBP's "restrictive, hawkish policy" prevents Poland from achieving one of the highest growth rates in Europe and hinted that Governor Glapinski should reconsider his current stance.

• mBank note that GDP data brought a significant surprise, leaving the full-year +3.5% Y/Y forecast intact. They add that economic recovery is gathering pace.
• ​Pekao ​write that the GDP outturn was a "big surprise" as earlier sectoral data were weak. They noted that consumption surprised to the upside and it seems that growth could top +3% Y/Y in the whole 2024. For now they pencil in +3.0% for 2024 and +4.3% Y/Y for 2025, noting that NBP rate-cut expectations will likely be corrected after today's data.
• PKO write that consumption may have grown by around 5% Y/Y, while investments were slightly negative. They feel comfortable with their current forecast of a full-year growth rate of +3.5% Y/Y, seeing a continuation of current trends in consumption and a slight recovery in investments in 2H2024.
• The Polish Economic Institute point to consumption as the main engine of economic growth, with investments and external demand creating a drag. They expect a stabilisation in the pace of GDP growth in the coming quarters, but investments may constrain acceleration. They expect stronger outturns at the beginning of 2025 due to the implementation of EU-funded projects.