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POLAND: Finance Minister Says Exporters See Zloty Strength As Problem

POLAND
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  • Finance Minister Andrzej Domanski said that some export-oriented companies see the current zloty strength as a problem, as EUR/PLN revisited its lowest levels since 1Q2020. He refused to comment on the optimal level of interest rates, citing the need to preserve central bank independence. GDP growth is still expected to average at +3.1% Y/Y this year but could potentially reach as much as +3.3% in a positive scenario.
  • Separately, Domanski told PAP news agency that the Finance Ministry has no plans to change excise tax on alcoholic beverages "for now," but also confirmed that talks are ongoing with enterprises on raising the excise tax on tobacco products. Pekao recently estimated that the proposed tax hike on tobacco products would boost CPI inflation by 0.15pp and core inflation by 0.25pp at the beginning of 2025.
  • Poland's YtD budget deficit widened to PLN69.906bn in June from PLN53.112bn recorded in May. Budget performance was at 38% of the 2024 plan. Minister Domanski pointed to the accelerating inflow of VAT revenues, which rose by 30.1% Y/Y.
  • Ex-Deputy Justice Minister and sitting opposition MP Marcin Romanowski was detained for the alleged misuse of public funds days after parliament stripped him off immunity. The opposition cried foul, which may reignite tensions around the ruling coalition's attempts to hold their predecessors accountable for alleged misuse of office.
  • The NBP will release core CPI data for June at 13:00BST/14:00CEST. The market expects a downtick to +3.7% Y/Y from +3.8% prior, with estimates based on the detailed final CPI report published yesterday.
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  • Finance Minister Andrzej Domanski said that some export-oriented companies see the current zloty strength as a problem, as EUR/PLN revisited its lowest levels since 1Q2020. He refused to comment on the optimal level of interest rates, citing the need to preserve central bank independence. GDP growth is still expected to average at +3.1% Y/Y this year but could potentially reach as much as +3.3% in a positive scenario.
  • Separately, Domanski told PAP news agency that the Finance Ministry has no plans to change excise tax on alcoholic beverages "for now," but also confirmed that talks are ongoing with enterprises on raising the excise tax on tobacco products. Pekao recently estimated that the proposed tax hike on tobacco products would boost CPI inflation by 0.15pp and core inflation by 0.25pp at the beginning of 2025.
  • Poland's YtD budget deficit widened to PLN69.906bn in June from PLN53.112bn recorded in May. Budget performance was at 38% of the 2024 plan. Minister Domanski pointed to the accelerating inflow of VAT revenues, which rose by 30.1% Y/Y.
  • Ex-Deputy Justice Minister and sitting opposition MP Marcin Romanowski was detained for the alleged misuse of public funds days after parliament stripped him off immunity. The opposition cried foul, which may reignite tensions around the ruling coalition's attempts to hold their predecessors accountable for alleged misuse of office.
  • The NBP will release core CPI data for June at 13:00BST/14:00CEST. The market expects a downtick to +3.7% Y/Y from +3.8% prior, with estimates based on the detailed final CPI report published yesterday.