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POLAND: Governor Glapinski Admits Dovish Pivot

POLAND
PolandCEEMEAEM BulletBulletGlobalEmerging Market NewsRegion
  • NBP Governor Adam Glapinski admitted that his personal views shifted to the dovish side since the September meeting in reaction to incoming macroeconomic data. This came after September already saw the Governor row back on his earlier hawkish guidance. The official now sees 2Q2025 as the optimal timing for cutting rates, but said that a "miracle" could push the MPC to take action earlier, with most members looking forward to the moment when they will be able to loosen monetary conditions. In a further dovish shift, the Governor now said that an optimistic March inflation projection could inspire the MPC to discuss starting a rate-cutting cycle (as opposed to an initial one-off adjustment).
  • Local source reports have been flagging tensions within the main opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party, with a faction led by ex-PM Mateusz Morawiecki allegedly trying to block a merger with ex-Justice Minister Zbigniew Ziobro's Sovereign Poland (SP) - an idea supported by PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski.
  • New Left's Wlodzimierz Czarzasty said that he is planning to step down as party leader next year. The New Left's executives will convene over the weekend to discuss an overhaul of the party's structure.
  • The NBP will publish the minutes of the September monetary policy meeting. The document is unlikely to send any shockwaves, given its backward looking nature.
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  • NBP Governor Adam Glapinski admitted that his personal views shifted to the dovish side since the September meeting in reaction to incoming macroeconomic data. This came after September already saw the Governor row back on his earlier hawkish guidance. The official now sees 2Q2025 as the optimal timing for cutting rates, but said that a "miracle" could push the MPC to take action earlier, with most members looking forward to the moment when they will be able to loosen monetary conditions. In a further dovish shift, the Governor now said that an optimistic March inflation projection could inspire the MPC to discuss starting a rate-cutting cycle (as opposed to an initial one-off adjustment).
  • Local source reports have been flagging tensions within the main opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party, with a faction led by ex-PM Mateusz Morawiecki allegedly trying to block a merger with ex-Justice Minister Zbigniew Ziobro's Sovereign Poland (SP) - an idea supported by PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski.
  • New Left's Wlodzimierz Czarzasty said that he is planning to step down as party leader next year. The New Left's executives will convene over the weekend to discuss an overhaul of the party's structure.
  • The NBP will publish the minutes of the September monetary policy meeting. The document is unlikely to send any shockwaves, given its backward looking nature.