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POLAND: JP Morgan Say NBP Will “Unquestionably” Be Unmoved by CPI Print

POLAND
  • JP Morgan say the NBP has maintained and escalated its hawkish stance over time to a point where the bar for it to move is becoming quite elevated. Therefore, they note that while today’s inflation print may have yielded a downside surprise, the central bank will unquestionably not be moved by that, and if anything it will focus on the firming of core inflation. 
  • JPM expect the NBP will cut only in 2Q25, but even there their conviction is not very high, noting that they could well start in 1Q or later in 3Q. JPM believe that it will only be a shallow easing adjustment rather than major easing, with the central bank bringing rates to 5% at end-2025.
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PolandCEEMEAEM BulletBulletGlobalEmerging Market NewsRegion

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