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POLAND: Mixed Views Over Poland’s 2024 Growth Prospects

POLAND
  • Commenting on Polish growth following this morning’s data, JP Morgan note that risks to 2Q24 GDP growth are skewed to the downside. After a weak start of 2024, they had been expecting an acceleration of growth in 2Q24 (to 1.3% Q/Q) on the back of large real income gains and normalization/rebound in investment. Yet, they say that so far the combination of production side data and the labour market raises some question marks about the materialization of that rebound.
  • Meanwhile, ING remain moderately optimistic about Poland's continued economic recovery throughout 2024. They note that against the backdrop of lower inflation, real wage growth remains robust which should support the continuation of the recovery in consumption, driving economic growth in 2024. On the other hand, growth will be weighed down by weak external demand, a relatively strong zloty and a weakening of public investment. ING forecast GDP growth at 3% this year and to accelerate in 2025.

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