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POLAND: NBP's Dabrowski Sees March-July As Window For Starting Easing Cycle

POLAND
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  • Local assets sold off Tuesday on the back of geopolitical risk yesterday due to Poland's outsized exposure to any fallout from the escalation in the Russo-Ukrainian war. Finance Minister sought to assuage markets, noting that the situation on FX and bond markets is stable and securing Poland's borrowing needs is "proceeding smoothly." Renewed geopolitical angst came about on the back of Ukraine's first strike with US-supplied long-range ATACMS missiles against targets within Russia and outside of the boundaries of the Kursk oblast, which had earlier been rumoured to represent the geographical limits of the White House's authorisation. Russia responded with a revision to its nuclear doctrine, effectively lowering the bar for using the weapons. Both sides of the war may seek to gain more leverage ahead of the beginning of Donald Trump's second term and amid speculation that he might start his tenure by pushing for ceasefire talks.
  • NBP's Ireneusz Dabrowski wrote on X that "an analysis of data confirms the stability of disinflationary processes and the prospect of a sustainable return of inflation to the target." He added that "the conditions for starting a rate-cutting cycle will appear between March and July 2025, depending on the pace of the decline of inflation processes and the assumed delays in the impact of the MPC decisions." Just a week ago, Dabrowski told Bloomberg that "the most likely scenario is that a rate cut discussion would take place only in the third quarter."
  • NBP Deputy Governor Marta Kightley said that a new study commissioned by the central bank showed that low-income households are saving more than before due to concerns about future costs of living and possible geopolitical shocks, which weighs on consumption. She noted that the increase in consumption next year will be lower than this year, but other GDP components are expected to boost growth.
  • The cabinet approved a bill capping energy prices for households at PLN500/MWh for the first nine months of 2025. This should give the NBP more certainty around next year's inflation path.
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  • Local assets sold off Tuesday on the back of geopolitical risk yesterday due to Poland's outsized exposure to any fallout from the escalation in the Russo-Ukrainian war. Finance Minister sought to assuage markets, noting that the situation on FX and bond markets is stable and securing Poland's borrowing needs is "proceeding smoothly." Renewed geopolitical angst came about on the back of Ukraine's first strike with US-supplied long-range ATACMS missiles against targets within Russia and outside of the boundaries of the Kursk oblast, which had earlier been rumoured to represent the geographical limits of the White House's authorisation. Russia responded with a revision to its nuclear doctrine, effectively lowering the bar for using the weapons. Both sides of the war may seek to gain more leverage ahead of the beginning of Donald Trump's second term and amid speculation that he might start his tenure by pushing for ceasefire talks.
  • NBP's Ireneusz Dabrowski wrote on X that "an analysis of data confirms the stability of disinflationary processes and the prospect of a sustainable return of inflation to the target." He added that "the conditions for starting a rate-cutting cycle will appear between March and July 2025, depending on the pace of the decline of inflation processes and the assumed delays in the impact of the MPC decisions." Just a week ago, Dabrowski told Bloomberg that "the most likely scenario is that a rate cut discussion would take place only in the third quarter."
  • NBP Deputy Governor Marta Kightley said that a new study commissioned by the central bank showed that low-income households are saving more than before due to concerns about future costs of living and possible geopolitical shocks, which weighs on consumption. She noted that the increase in consumption next year will be lower than this year, but other GDP components are expected to boost growth.
  • The cabinet approved a bill capping energy prices for households at PLN500/MWh for the first nine months of 2025. This should give the NBP more certainty around next year's inflation path.