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POLAND: NBP's Maslowska Says Easing Will Likely Start In 2H25, Core CPI On Tap

POLAND
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  • NBP's Gabriela Maslowska struck cautious notes in an interview for PAP news agency, noting that "there's no certainty, but there's a big chance for rate reduction in 2025." She was sceptical whether cuts will be possible in 2Q2025, effectively challenging guidance from several of her colleagues, and suggested instead that "more likely it'll be second half of the year." Maslowska said that rate cuts should be gradual, starting with 25bp.
  • Poland scrambled fighter jets and put its air defence systems on high alert as Russia conducted its largest missile strike against Ukraine in months, hitting targets close to the Polish border. Separately, Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski lauded US President Joe Biden's decision to allow Ukraine to use long-range ATACMS missiles to strike targets inside Russia, noting that it's a response in "a language that Vladimir Putin will understand."
  • The cabinet's legislation czar Maciej Berek said that the government will likely opt for capping energy prices next year rather than introduce direct energy subsidies (vouchers) for households in order to avoid the costs associated with administrative servicing in the latter case.
  • Core inflation may have decelerated to +4.2% Y/Y in October from +4.3% prior, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. The NBP will released the data at 13:00GMT/14:00CET after last week's report from Statistics Poland confirmed that headline inflation accelerated to +5.0% Y/Y.
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  • NBP's Gabriela Maslowska struck cautious notes in an interview for PAP news agency, noting that "there's no certainty, but there's a big chance for rate reduction in 2025." She was sceptical whether cuts will be possible in 2Q2025, effectively challenging guidance from several of her colleagues, and suggested instead that "more likely it'll be second half of the year." Maslowska said that rate cuts should be gradual, starting with 25bp.
  • Poland scrambled fighter jets and put its air defence systems on high alert as Russia conducted its largest missile strike against Ukraine in months, hitting targets close to the Polish border. Separately, Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski lauded US President Joe Biden's decision to allow Ukraine to use long-range ATACMS missiles to strike targets inside Russia, noting that it's a response in "a language that Vladimir Putin will understand."
  • The cabinet's legislation czar Maciej Berek said that the government will likely opt for capping energy prices next year rather than introduce direct energy subsidies (vouchers) for households in order to avoid the costs associated with administrative servicing in the latter case.
  • Core inflation may have decelerated to +4.2% Y/Y in October from +4.3% prior, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. The NBP will released the data at 13:00GMT/14:00CET after last week's report from Statistics Poland confirmed that headline inflation accelerated to +5.0% Y/Y.