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POLAND: NBP Widely Expected To Stand Pat On Rates, New Projection In Focus

POLAND
  • The NBP will likely leave interest rates unchanged today. Poland's central bank has been reluctant to resume rate cuts after October 2023, even as the CNB and NBH have delivered decent amounts of monetary easing since. Although inflation has oscillated within the +/-1pp tolerance band around the +2.5% Y/Y target in the past few months, Polish policymakers are wary of the impact of the expected increase in administered energy prices on inflation expectations and of the implications of robust wage growth for the persistence of core inflation. The statement today should include the main parameters of the new macroeconomic projection prepared by NBP staff, with Governor Glapinski set to provide more details during his press conference tomorrow. Click here to see our preview of this week's monetary policy meeting.
  • Main opposition Law and Justice (PiS) executives have failed to quell the mutiny of its representatives in Lesser Poland regional assembly, some of whom have refused to support the election of a candidate indicated by party headquarters to the position of the speaker. Onet reported that the conflict in the regional branch of the party reflects tensions between two major factions, while the rare show of defiance against explicit instructions from party leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski is a destabilising factor. Another headwind for the party comes in the form of the scrutiny of its finances, with WP.pl reporting that the National Electoral Commission (NEC) will convene in the coming days to verify the financial statements submitted by parties contesting last year's parliamentary election. In the extreme scenario, a negative decision could deprive PiS of millions of zlotys in subsidies.
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