MNI BRIEF: China Jan-Feb Investment Rebounds, Consumption Slows

China investment rebounded more than expected at the beginning of the year, with declines narrowing in the real-estate sector, though consumption failed to increase over the Luna New Year holiday, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday showed.

Retail sales decelerating to 5.5% y/y from December's 7.4% gain, though outperforming the expected 5.0%. The NBS traditionally combines data released for the first two months to rule out the impact of Chinese New Year.

Fixed-asset investment over the Jan-Feb period registered a 4.2% y/y increase, rising from the 3.0% growth in 2023 and better than the 3.4% consensus. Property investment tapered its decline for the first time since February 2023, falling 9% following the previous 9.6% decrease. Infrastructure investment and manufacturing investment grew by 6.3% and 9.4%, higher than the previous 5.9% and 6.5%.

Industrial production rose 7.0% y/y in the first two months, up from December's 6.8% and beating the 5.1% forecast.

China's central bank will likely cut its policy rates to boost core inflation, a senior policy advisor recently told MNI. (See MNI INTERVIEW: PBOC To Cut Rates To Boost Credit - Zhang Bin)