POWER
Poland’s Jan 25 power contract climbed sharply on 23 Dec from the previous session to reach its highest since 6 Dec as large gains in European emissions and coal supported the contract. Temperatures in Warsaw are still anticipated to be above the season average through 6-10 Day ECMWF forecasts, albeit, slowing declining from 27 Dec peak.
- Poland Jan25 baseload power settled at PLN467.90/MWh compared to its settled price of PLN445.85/MWh on 20 Dec, according to data on Polish power exchange TGE.
- This is the highest the contract has been since 6 December when it settled at PLN469.20/MWh.
- EUA DEC 25 up 2.5% at 69.92 EUR/MT
- Rotterdam Coal JAN 25 up 1.5% at 109.15 USD/MT at 13:44 GMT
- Average temperatures in Warsaw are estimated to remain mostly above the norm over 24 Dec- 5 January, however, temps will begin dropping from 27 Dec and reach as low as -0.88C on 3 January before flipping below the seasonal average on 6 January at -1.45C – likely spurring heating demand.
- The Jan 25 contract traded 53 times in 71 lots from 46 lots exchanged in the previous session.
- Jan opened at PLN449/MWh – the low for the day – before climbing to PLN468.50/MWh - the high for the day – and ending the session at PLN468/MWh. The contract was trading in a general upward trend since the session started.
- Closer in, the day-ahead moved downward to PLN440.66/MWh for Tuesday delivery from PLN505.49/MWh for Monday amid wind expected at just 0.226MW or 2% load factor tomorrow from 1.12GW or 12% load factor today.
- Despite the fall, it still settled higher on the week.
- The fall was also due to demand estimated at 16.07GW on 24 Dec from 18.72GW today.
Looking slightly ahead, wind is expected at between 7-12% load factors over 25-27 December (Wed-Fri) – which could keep power prices elevated; however, lower industrial demand is anticipated due to the holidays.
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