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POWER: Polish January Power Slides

POWER
PolandCEEMEAEnergy BulletsBulletPower BulletsCommodities

Polish January power base-load futures have settled lower on Monday at PLN 462.60/MWh, compared with PLN469.20/MWh on Friday, and the lowest since 13 November, TGE data showed, weighed on by losses in the energy complex and milder weather. 

  • European coal prices and carbon allowances are pulling back on Monday with losses in EU gas prices amid an upward revision in weather forecasts for NW and Central Europe.
  • The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecast for Warsaw suggested mean temperatures have been revised up to dip below normal this week before rising above the average from 15 December onwards.
  • Closer in, the day-ahead rebounded slightly to PLN636.11/MWh for Tuesday’s delivery, up from PLN494.05/MWh for Monday’s delivery due to lower wind output.
  • Spot prices for Wednesday’s delivery are likely to be supported with colder weather and low wind output at 473MW during base load – equivalent to a 5% load factor.
  • Wind output Poland this week: Tue 2GW, Wed 473MW, Thu 1.19GW, Fri 643MW, Sat 3.15GW, Sun 4.19GW according to SpotRenewables.
  • Separately, the 500MW power link between Lithuania and Poland will be offline from 12 December 06:00CET for almost 14h amid planned maintenance of the relay protection, remit data showed.
  • EUA DEC 24 down 3.1% at 66.19 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas JAN 25 down 3.3% at 44.96 EUR/MWh
  • Rotterdam Coal JAN 25 down 1.1% at 110.55 USD/MT
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Polish January power base-load futures have settled lower on Monday at PLN 462.60/MWh, compared with PLN469.20/MWh on Friday, and the lowest since 13 November, TGE data showed, weighed on by losses in the energy complex and milder weather. 

  • European coal prices and carbon allowances are pulling back on Monday with losses in EU gas prices amid an upward revision in weather forecasts for NW and Central Europe.
  • The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecast for Warsaw suggested mean temperatures have been revised up to dip below normal this week before rising above the average from 15 December onwards.
  • Closer in, the day-ahead rebounded slightly to PLN636.11/MWh for Tuesday’s delivery, up from PLN494.05/MWh for Monday’s delivery due to lower wind output.
  • Spot prices for Wednesday’s delivery are likely to be supported with colder weather and low wind output at 473MW during base load – equivalent to a 5% load factor.
  • Wind output Poland this week: Tue 2GW, Wed 473MW, Thu 1.19GW, Fri 643MW, Sat 3.15GW, Sun 4.19GW according to SpotRenewables.
  • Separately, the 500MW power link between Lithuania and Poland will be offline from 12 December 06:00CET for almost 14h amid planned maintenance of the relay protection, remit data showed.
  • EUA DEC 24 down 3.1% at 66.19 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas JAN 25 down 3.3% at 44.96 EUR/MWh
  • Rotterdam Coal JAN 25 down 1.1% at 110.55 USD/MT