Polish Sell-Side Desks Differ In Interpretations Of MPC Statement

Below sums up the views of Polish sell-side desks released in the lead-up to NBP Governor Adam Glapinski's press conference, due at the top of the hour.

• mBank describe new NBP forecasts as "largely in line with what was presented in March." They do not think that slower 2023 GDP growth could justify rate cuts, as the MPC can no longer affect it. They point to dovish adjustments to the statement but still expect rates to remain on hold through end-2023.
• Santander comment that there were no major tweaks to the statement, while forecasts do not imply a significantly faster return to the inflation target. They think that the MPC is much further from a serious discussion of rate cuts than priced by the market. They expect the tone of today's presser to be similar to what we heard in previous months, with the Governor keeping all options on the table.
  
• ING think that the statement expressed greater confidence about disinflation in 2H23 and 2024 and about the effectiveness of current monetary policy. They expect the Governor to speak in a similar vein and note that he could set the scene for rate cuts. They now expect cuts in September and October.
  
• Bank Millennium do not see the latest projection as providing strong arguments in support of dovish rhetoric pointing to the possibility of rate cuts this year. However, they see a risk of a cut this year, given the focus of some MPC members on keeping unemployment low.
  
• BOS Bank see no significant changes to the statement and say that the new inflation projection did not allow the MPC to change its guidance. They expect Governor Glapinski to reaffirm the "wait-and-see" approach, expressing hope that rate cuts will be possible by end-2023. They pencil in the first cut for late 1Q2024.
• PKO expect the Governor's rhetoric to turn more dovish and they note that we may hear more suggestions related to potential rate cuts today.
• Pekao believes that the MPC has greater confidence in the effectiveness of its monetary policy and in its preferred inflation/rate scenario. They still expect a 25bp cut in November and think that after a one-month break, cuts will continue, with 25bp being delivered every month in 2024.
  
• BGK say that the statement was practically unchanged from the previous one, save for some references to past macroeconomic developments. They see the decision as "neutral for markets and cautious from the perspective of rate-cut sugestions," with the presser expected to convey a similar message.
  
• Bank Pocztowy write that there was no notable change in the tone of the statement, while new projections seemingly did not affect the MPC's optics. They stress that the MPC has not ended its tightening cycle yet. They see a chance of a rate cut in October or November.