POWER
Poland’s Jan 25 and week ahead failed to continue climbing from the previous session to resist gains in European coal and emissions as mean temperatures in Warsaw are still set to be way above norm until 4 January and strong wind in Poland is expected next week.
- Poland Jan25 baseload power settled at PLN467.15/MWh compared to its settled price of PLN469.30/MWh on 24 Dec, according to data on Polish power exchange TGE
- Poland Week 1 2025 baseload power settled at PLN307.02/MWh compared to its settled price of PLN339.11/MWh on 24 Dec.
- EUA DEC 25 up 3% at 71.55 EUR/MT
- Rotterdam Coal JAN 25 up 2.6% at 112.45 USD/MT at 15:34 GMT
- Average temperatures in Warsaw are still seen to remain above the norm until 4 January at between 0.8-4.6C compared to the seasonal average of around minus 0.7C. However, temps will flip below on 5 January to be at minus 1.7C.
- Wind forecasts in Poland suggest wind to between 36-73% load factors next week (30 Dec-3 Jan) – which could weigh on delivery costs and drop them lower on the week.
- The Jan 25 contract traded 41 times in 42 lots from 13 lots exchanged in the previous session.
- The week-ahead product traded five times in 11 lots, up from one exchanged in the previous session.
- Closer in, the day-ahead remained firm at PLN510.76/MWh for Saturday delivery from PLN553.85/MWh for Friday as wind is expected at 0.430GW tomorrow compared to 0.428GW today.
Looking slightly ahead, wind is expected at a 49% load factor, or 4.59GW on 30 Dec (Mon)– which could keep gains limited from rising demand from the weekend.
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