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POLITICAL RISK: Scott Slightly Favoured In Race For Senate Leadership

POLITICAL RISK
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Senator Rick Scott (R-FL) is slightly favoured to win the race to replace outgoing Senate Minority leader Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) as the top Republican in Senate, according to Polymarket. 

  • President-elect Donald Trump has so far declined to endorse a candidate, despite a wave of Trump-aligned media figures calling on Senator to back Scott in Wednesday's secret ballot. A strong relationship with the Senate Majority Leader will be critical to legislating Trump's agenda, but the Washington Post notes: "Some advisers and people who have spoken to him have suggested to Trumpthat he not get involved, questioning if it’s the place to extend political capital, especially if his choice doesn’t win."
  • The Post notes, "Thune’s most important supporter right now might beSen. Steve Daines (R-MT), who is extremely close with Trump and isin Republicans’ good graces for winning back the majority as NRSC chair, a position that has also made him close with the incoming Republican class. Daines has been doing work behind the scenes to help Thune’s candidacy."

Figure 1: Next Senate Majority Leader, % Implied Probability

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Senator Rick Scott (R-FL) is slightly favoured to win the race to replace outgoing Senate Minority leader Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) as the top Republican in Senate, according to Polymarket. 

  • President-elect Donald Trump has so far declined to endorse a candidate, despite a wave of Trump-aligned media figures calling on Senator to back Scott in Wednesday's secret ballot. A strong relationship with the Senate Majority Leader will be critical to legislating Trump's agenda, but the Washington Post notes: "Some advisers and people who have spoken to him have suggested to Trumpthat he not get involved, questioning if it’s the place to extend political capital, especially if his choice doesn’t win."
  • The Post notes, "Thune’s most important supporter right now might beSen. Steve Daines (R-MT), who is extremely close with Trump and isin Republicans’ good graces for winning back the majority as NRSC chair, a position that has also made him close with the incoming Republican class. Daines has been doing work behind the scenes to help Thune’s candidacy."

Figure 1: Next Senate Majority Leader, % Implied Probability

Keep reading...Show less