Poll Shows October Election Result Likely To Be Very Close

The latest 1News/Verian poll showed that it is too soon to make predictions about the upcoming NZ election scheduled for October 14, according to Bloomberg. It shows support for the incumbent Labour Party down 2pp to 33% but the opposition Nationals also down 2pp to 35%. However, the Labour ally the Greens rose 3pp to 10% and the Nationals partner the ACT Party +1pp to 12%.

• The centre-right alliance has 47% support versus the centre-left on 43%. This would mean that the Nationals/ACT would win 61 of the 120 parliamentary seats. Even with the support of the Maori Party, Labour/Greens wouldn’t be able to form a government under this scenario.
• Support for Labour increased when Chris Hipkins took over from Jacinda Ardern earlier this year but that backing has been declining since. Although Hipkins remains preferred PM with 24% support (-1pp) and the Nationals’ Luxon on 20% (+2pp).
• Cost-of-living, the slowing economy, crime and housing are key election issues.
• The poll was taken between July 8 and 12.