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Poll Shows Rate Cut Pushed Out To Q1 2024 As Inflation Forecasts Revised Up

FED

A poll by the NABE and reported by Reuters shows that economists have pushed back their expectations for the first Fed rate cut to Q1 2024 from Q4 2023 as they revised up their inflation and labour market forecasts. They still expect the terminal rate to be 5% - 5.25% though.

  • Analysts are divided over whether there will be a recession in the US and the median growth forecast is 0.4% y/y in Q4 2023.
  • Inflation projections were revised up to 3.3% y/y for Q4 2023 from 3% in February. And payroll expectations have been increased to 142k/mth from 102k with the 2023 unemployment rate forecast to average 3.7% down from 3.9%.
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