Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
UK
UK opinion polls are throwing up some notable outliers in recent days as a leaking scandal at No.10 comes just days ahead of local, regional, and mayoral elections in England, Scotland, and Wales.
- Two of the most eye-catching polls in recent days saw a significant decline in support for PM Boris Johnson's Conservatives, and a rise in support for Labour respectively:
- Westminster Voting Intention: Conservative: 40% (-5), Labour: 37% (-1), Liberal Democrat: 8% (+2), Green: 5% (=). Via @IpsosMORI, 16-22 Apr. Changes w/ 5-12 Mar.
- Westminster voting intention: CON: 44% (+1), LAB: 34% (+5), GRN: 7% (-1), LDEM: 5% (-3), REFUK: 2% (-1).via @YouGov. 23 April. Chgs. w/ 13 Apr
- Of course looking at single polls can give an inaccurate picture due to the potential for outliers. A broader trend shows the more reliable picture, and at present that picture is a relatively positive one for the gov't.
Chart 1. Opinion Polling in UK Since Jan 2020, % and Trendline
Source, IpsosMORI, YouGov, Survation, SavantaComRes, Opinium, ICM, Redfield and Wilton, Deltapoll, BMG, Numbercruncher, MNI
- The Conservatives continue to enjoy something of a 'vaccine bounce' following the rapid rollout of COVID-19 vaccines in the UK, and the progressive loosening of COVID-19 restrictions.
- Political eyes in the UK focused on next week's local, council and mayoral elections on 6 May. If the Conservatives can avoid significant losses, or even make gains, at the council level in England it will serve as a significant boost to the PM amidst a leaking scandal that has dominated headlines in recent days.
- The last time many of the councils up for election next week last voted was May 2017, when then-PM Theresa May was able to secure significant gains over Labour, then led by Jeremy Corbyn. As such, the electoral maths would suggest Labour are in a strong position to take a notable proportion of these seats back.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok