Polls In Flux As Local, Mayoral Elections Approach

UK opinion polls are throwing up some notable outliers in recent days as a leaking scandal at No.10 comes just days ahead of local, regional, and mayoral elections in England, Scotland, and Wales.

• Two of the most eye-catching polls in recent days saw a significant decline in support for PM Boris Johnson's Conservatives, and a rise in support for Labour respectively:
  • Westminster Voting Intention: Conservative: 40% (-5), Labour: 37% (-1), Liberal Democrat: 8% (+2), Green: 5% (=). Via @IpsosMORI, 16-22 Apr. Changes w/ 5-12 Mar.
  • Westminster voting intention: CON: 44% (+1), LAB: 34% (+5), GRN: 7% (-1), LDEM: 5% (-3), REFUK: 2% (-1).via @YouGov. 23 April. Chgs. w/ 13 Apr
• Of course looking at single polls can give an inaccurate picture due to the potential for outliers. A broader trend shows the more reliable picture, and at present that picture is a relatively positive one for the gov't.

Source, IpsosMORI, YouGov, Survation, SavantaComRes, Opinium, ICM, Redfield and Wilton, Deltapoll, BMG, Numbercruncher, MNI

• The Conservatives continue to enjoy something of a 'vaccine bounce' following the rapid rollout of COVID-19 vaccines in the UK, and the progressive loosening of COVID-19 restrictions.
• Political eyes in the UK focused on next week's local, council and mayoral elections on 6 May. If the Conservatives can avoid significant losses, or even make gains, at the council level in England it will serve as a significant boost to the PM amidst a leaking scandal that has dominated headlines in recent days.
• The last time many of the councils up for election next week last voted was May 2017, when then-PM Theresa May was able to secure significant gains over Labour, then led by Jeremy Corbyn. As such, the electoral maths would suggest Labour are in a strong position to take a notable proportion of these seats back.