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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
GREECE
The latest opinion polling in the run up to the 21 May legislative election shows a tight contest, with no party likely to win an overall majority. As such, lengthy inter-party negotiations are likely to be required post-election to reach an agreement on forming a governing coalition, and it this is not possible then a second snap election may be required to reach an outcome.
- According to an average of recent seat projection polling, the centre-right New Democracy (ND) of PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis will emerge as the largest party, with 120 seats in the 300-member Hellenic Parliament. The main opposition leftist SYRIZA of former PM Alexis Tsipras is set to come second with 98 seats.
- The centre-left PASOK-KINAL could emerge as the 'kingmaker' as the third-largest party with 34 seats. If these numbers are reflected in the final result, ND and PASOK could form a majority gov't. However, it is unclear whether PASOK would be willing to prop up ND, having strongly criticised Mitsotakis over the handling of a spying scandal involving the security services.
- A leftist coalition involving SYRIZA, PASOK and former finance minister Yanis Varoufakis' far-left European Realistic Disobedience Front (MeRA25) would be just short of a majority. It could be propped up by the Greek Communist Party (KKE), but this coalition would likely prove unstable given the policy and personality clashes.
Chart 1. Seat Projections for Greek Election based on Opinion Polling
Source: Pulse RC, GPO, Metron Analysis, MRB, MNI. Fieldwork: 24 Apr-7 May.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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