Polls Pointing To Minority Government After 2025 Election

The latest Newspoll from The Australian shows that the two-party preferred split of voter support was steady at 51: 49 in favour of the incumbent Labor government but less than it received in the May 2022 election and in a vote would likely result in a minority Labor government. The unchanged divide was despite 56% support for PM Albanese’s interventionist Made in Australia proposal. The next election is due by May 2025.

• Both the government and the opposition coalition saw a 1pp increase in their primary support to 33%, in line with 2022’s election, and 38%, 2pp above 2022, respectively. The gains were made at the expense of the Greens -1pp to 12% and independents -1pp to 10%.
• Albanese remains the preferred PM with 48% support while opposition leader Dutton rose 1pp to 35%.
• The Newspoll survey was taken between April 15 and 18.
• The Sydney Morning Herald’s Resolve Political Monitor showed voters more critical of the government’s performance with Labor’s primary vote falling 2pp to 30%, which was the eighth fall in the last 10 surveys, while it rose 1pp to 36% for the coalition. PM Albanese leads Dutton by 9pp as preferred PM though.
• Voters’ main concerns were led by grocery bills on 55% followed by utilities on 37%. The May 14 budget is expected to contain further cost-of-living relief.