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Polls Show Close Race, Red Bloc In Front Could See EEA Stance Reassessed

NORWAY

Ahead of the September 2021 general election, opinion polls in Norway continue to show a mixed picture, with the Conservatives, Labour, and the Centre Party all vying for first place.

  • However, polls do consistently show the centre-left 'red bloc' of parties consistently ahead of the incumbent centre-right 'blue bloc' led by PM Erna Solberg's Conservatives.
  • Latest Kantar poll: Conservative: 24% (+4), Labour: 22% (+2), Centre Party: 22% (=), Socialist Left: 8% (=), Progress Party: 7% (-2), Red Party: 5% (-1), Greens: 3% (-1), Christian Democrats: 3% (=), Liberals: 2% (-1). +/- vs. 24-30 November 2020. Fieldwork: Jan 2021.
  • Based on this poll the left bloc (Labour, Centre, Socialist Left) would gain 53% of the vote to 36% for the blue bloc (Conservative, Progress, Christian Democrat, Liberal) with the Greens and the Red Party not included in either bloc.
  • There has been some focus in press and analyst circles of what the election could mean for Norway's future relations with the EU. At present Norway is part of the European Economic Area, and as such is a member of the single market but without a say on its rules.
  • Following the deal between the UK and EU, some in Norway have claimed that Oslo should seek a 'better' deal for Norway given that one has seemingly been offered to the UK.
  • The governing Conservatives are arguably the most pro-EU party in Norway and certainly the most pro-EU of the main three parties. If the red bloc comes to power this pro-EU dynamic could shift.
  • This is notably the case if the Centre Party lead the next gov't. The Centre Party is a uniquely Nordic political movement, supporting decentralisation of decision making, agrarian interests, protectionism and euroscepticism but from the political centre ground. Should the Centre Party be able to gain the premiership in any coalition deal there could be more impetus towards a reassessment of Norway's relations with the EU, with a looser relationship a potential outcome.
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