Polls Show Likud Losing Ground But No Clear Alternative Government

Latest opinion polls from Israel ahead of the 23 March legislative election show Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing Likud Party remaining as the largest single force in Israeli politics, but likely short of coalition allies to form a majority gov't. However, the schisms within the left and right wings of Israeli politics means that polls are showing the formation of a majority coalition against Likud is also likely to prove difficult.

• Polls below show number of seats each party would win if the poll was replicated in an election:
  • Panels Politics: Likud (Conservative): 28 (-1), New Hope (Conservative): 18 (+1), Yesh Atid-Telem (Centrist): 14, Yamina (Right): 13, Joint List (Left/Arab): 10 (-1), Shas (Haredi, Right): 8 (=), United Torah Judaism (Haredi, non-Zionist): 7 (-1), Yisrael Beiteinu (Right/Secular): 7 (=), The Israelis (Centre-Left): 6 (-2), Meretz (Left/Green): 5 (=), Blue & White (Centrist): 4 (+4). +/- vs. 31/12/20. Fieldwork: 07/01/21, Sample Size: 527
  • Smith: Likud (Conservative): 30, Yesh Atid-Telem (Centrist): 19, New Hope (Conservative): 19, Yamina (Right): 11, Joint List (Left/Arab): 11, Shas (Haredi, Right): 8, United Torah Judaism (Haredi, non-Zionist): 8, Yisrael Beiteinu (Right/Secular): 6, Meretz (Left/Green): 5, The Israelis (Centre-Left): 4
• These polls present all parties as separate political entities, but there is speculation that the two centrist parties (Yesh Atid-Telem and The Israelis) and/or the two right-wing anti-Netanyahu parties (New Hope and Yamina) could form electoral coalitions.
• Based on these polls even if the four centrist and anti-Netanyahu right parties formed a coalition they would still be short of the 61 seats in the 120-seat Knesset to form a majority gov't. That said, Likud would also be short of seats to form a majority gov't, a scenario that would prolong the years-long period of political instability and frequent elections in Israel.